SLC Housing Inventory - 2022 Recap
Housing supply has been front and center in the headlines this year. In the first half of 2022 headlines featured the anemic housing supply and in the second half of the year the headlines were all about inventory expansion.
Housing demand has more variables. 2022 was a year of rapid mortgage rate increases. The simple of what we saw this year is what many called a Fear Of Missing Out market from January to April/May and then a cooling of demand the rest of the year. For this 2022 recap lets focus on supply.
2022 followed very similar patterns, almost similar to the month, to 2021 but with more extreme market movements.
The supply of available residential homes is now at its lowest point since the summer. Inventory of less than 8500 homes in the Wasatch Front MLS (currently 8314) and less than 2000 homes in Salt Lake County (currently 1967).
January: Mortgage rates jumped more than half a point. By mid January the inventory dropped near the lowest levels of the 2021 inventory pinch.
February: The month when everyone suddenly knew that the market was red hot. I am willing to bet this is the month when you first noticed lines of buyers outside of newly listed homes
March: Inventory hit its lowest point. Less than 320 available homes in Salt Lake County.
April: Inventory climbs by roughly 10% per week.
May: The continued 10%ish per week inventory expansion compounds to a more noticeable change to buyers having choices in homes to buy. The first week of May is when I noticed the market shift. No longer seeing 5, 10, 20+ offers on listings.
June: Continued 10%ish per week inventory expansion
July: Inventory expansion slows.
August to November 1st: Inventory relatively constant around 10,000 units All MLS and 2700 active units in Salt Lake County
November to December: Inventory declines every week
2023 will be an interesting year. With so many homeowners staying in place enjoying their low fixed rate mortgages it is unlikely that we will see above historic norms available housing inventory. In both 2021 and 2022 the market turned white hot in the beginning of the year. Recent history, data, and mortgage applications point to the possibility of the market moving more towards a sellers market in early 2023. The macro environment is very different today so it is unlikely that we will see a return of a hot sellers market, but we may see a decrease in Expired listings (homes that list and don't sell) and a slowing in the market cooling trend.