The Winter market is here. High inventory levels likely just peaked for 2026

Highlights:
1) Mortgage rate roller coaster so far this year. Currently at January 2025 levels
2) Local housing inventory above historic averages. Plenty out there to choose from
3) Inventory levels likely peaked in late October (seasonally normal supply inflection point)
4) Homes that prepare, price right, and position correctly in the market, successfully sell 

One of my one liners is that there is a large inventory of mostly overpriced homes that are sitting and the sellers that know what they are doing successfully sell. On the other side of that there is a lot of opportunity for savvy buyers. Listings break down into different categories. Sellers that have to sell, price to the market, and often sell quickly. And another category of sellers that are testing the market and they sit on market. If they sell they do it after taking price reduction after price reduction. The current inventory is full of those market testers. Testing the market, will sell if I get X price kind of thing. The numbers don't tell the whole story of navigating the current market. A real estate agent like me telling you to price appropriately is about the dumbest message ever. My intention is to explain the unique and individualized approach required to win in the current market 

On the demand side, it was a tough year for mortgage rates. The buyers in the market right now are serious about buying. If you are thinking about being one of these buyers. Consider that there are a lot of homes to choose from and ability to get sellers to agree to significant concessions is higher than I've seen since my early career in the 2010s.

The comical way of describing this is that sellers think it is 2021, buyers think it is 2008, and the skilled Realtor's job is to close that gap. Successfully selling a home involves an analytical approach to pricing into local buyer demand. 

Local housing inventory in higher (as of a week ago) than I have seen it since I started following these numbers. Need to look back well into the 2010's to find another 15,000+ listing WFRMLS active inventory. The upward trend usually peaks in early November. Looks like that happened in late October. Week over week inventory declines usually continue until the flowers come out in the Spring.  

Across the board for the Wasatch Front counties, inventory/supply ranges from five months and six months. By that measure alone it is a balanced market. In the current inventory we are seeing many price reductions. In Salt Lake County, 36.9% of the current inventory reduced offering price in the last 30 days. More than half (55.7%) of the homes currently on the market in Salt Lake County reduced price at least once. 

30 year mortgages are now at 7.18% (Freddie Mac). This means that the most qualified borrowers can get rates in the low 6's. These numbers are posted every Thursday. The most savvy buyers are negotiating interest rate buydowns tailored to ideal monthly payment.  

If you are having thoughts of moving, it might benefit you to have a casual conversation about what is possible in this market. Pro tip, selling and buying at the same time without moving twice IS POSSIBLE in the current market. Schedule a strategy session HERE